水资源约束力的内涵、研究意义及战略框架

针对世界和我国快速城市化进程中水资源对社会经济发展制约作用不断加强的态势,首次较为系统地提出了水资源约束力的概念,并在阐述其基本内涵和研究意义的基础上,就水资源约束力研究的战略框架进行了初步探讨。研究认为:水资源约束力研究是我国和世界21世纪水安全研究的重要内容之一;在水资源承载力、水资源压力研究的基础上,进一步研究水资源约束力,可以完整地揭示水资源系统与社会经济系统之间的相互作用和关系,对水资源科学的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义;当前应尽快建立并完善水资源约束力研究的理论体系,加强水资源约束力的基本理论、量化方法和实证研究,重点加强区域水资源约束力的产生、影响因素、影响机制、变化规律、调控途径等的研究,并不断拓展研究领域,加强水资源约束力与水资源科学其它领域的集成研究。     

Assessment of transboundary environmental effects in the Pearl River Delta Region: Is there a role for strategic environmental assessment?

China's EIA Law does not require transboundary proposals to be assessed, despite recognition of this globally, for example in the Espoo Convention and Kiev Protocol, and in the European EIA and SEA Directives. In a transboundary context assessment within a state is unusual, as regulating these effects is primarily about the relationship between states. However where a state has more than one legal system such as in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region of southern China, transboundary effects should also be addressed. Yet despite the geographical connections between Guangdong Province in mainland China (where the EIA Law applies) and the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions (which have their own provisions, neither of which requires transboundary assessments), EIA and SEA are carried out separately. Coordinated or joint approaches to transboundary assessment are generally absent, with the legal autonomy of Hong Kong and Macau a major constraint. As a result institutional responses at the policy level have developed. The article considers global experiences with regulating transboundary EIA and SEA, and analyses potential application to land use, transport and air and water planning in the PRD Region. If applied, benefits may include prevention or mitigation of cumulative effects, broader public participation, and improvements to environmental governance. The PRD Region experience may encourage China to conduct and coordinate EIA and SEA processes with neighbouring states, which has been non-existent or extremely limited to date.     

黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险评价

结合黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险宏观性、综合性、复杂性的特点,论文以生态风险景观评价方法及3S技术等为研究手段,综合考虑重点产业发展战略人为风险源及自然风险源,以生态风险受体和终点选择、风险源分析、暴露危害分析、生态风险综合评价及生态风险分区为评价步骤,揭示了重点产业发展战略潜在生态风险空间分异特征。研究结果表明：黄河中上游重点产业战略实施区可划分为三类生态风险监控区,生态风险重点监控区自然风险源分布集中,重点产业人为风险源和自然风险源交织在一起,极易发生生态风险放大效应,生态风险次重点监控区自然生态风险源分布较单一,局部重点产业人为风险源强度增强,将增加区域生态风险水平,生态风险监控区自然生态风险源分布范围较小,潜在生态风险水平相对较低。论文探索了战略环评生态风险评价方法和评价思路,为国内重点产业发展战略生态风险评价提供了借鉴。     

南水北调东线山东境内调蓄湖库蓝藻种群分布特征及环境驱动因子

为掌握南水北调东线山东境内调蓄湖库在工程运行前后蓝藻种群的分布情况及其环境驱动因子,于2010～2019年的5～11月对南四湖、东平湖、大屯水库、东湖水库和双王城水库进行藻类和水环境调查.共检出浮游蓝藻44种,其中丝状蓝藻23种.湖泊假鱼腥藻、拉氏拟柱孢藻、铜绿微囊藻和惠氏微囊藻在各调蓄湖库的检出频次和密度均较高,是主要有害蓝藻种.通过分析各调蓄湖库蓝藻种群的分布特征,发现丝状蓝藻在水力扰动较大水体中的生长优势较为明显,应成为日后调蓄湖库蓝藻风险防控的重点.Pearson相关性分析和广义线性拟合曲线结果显示,总氮、总磷、水温和水深是影响调蓄湖库主要有害蓝藻种生长的主要环境驱动因子.氮磷营养盐对于有害蓝藻种的生长具有显著的促进作用.湖泊假鱼腥藻具有良好的温度适应性,在夏初秋末仍能成为优势种,而当水温大于25℃时,拉氏拟柱孢藻、铜绿微囊藻和惠氏微囊藻具明显的生长优势.此外,较小的水深更利于拉氏拟柱孢藻的生长.建议在加强控制湖库氮磷营养盐输入的基础上,在夏初和秋末对湖泊假鱼腥藻进行重点监控,并在高温时期密切关注浅水区拉氏拟柱孢藻的生长情况,保障水质安全.     

A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

From a conservation perspective, quantifying potential refugial capacity has been predominantly focused on climate refugia, which is critical for maintaining the persistence of species and ecosystems. However, protection from other stressors, such as human-induced changes in fire and hydrology, that cause habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation is also necessary to ensure that conservation efforts focused on climate are not undermined by other threats. Thus, conceptual and methodological advances for quantifying potential refugia from multiple anthropogenic stressors are important to support conservation efforts. We devised a new conceptual approach, the domains of refugia, for assessing refugial capacity that identifies areas where exposure to multiple stressors is low. In our framework, patterns of environmental variability (e.g., increased frequency of warm summers), thresholds of resilience, and extent and intensity of stressors are used to identify areas of potential refugia from a suite of ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., changes in fire regime). To demonstrate its utility, we applied the framework to a Southern California landscape. Sites with high refugial capacity (super-refugia sites) had on average 30% fewer extremely warm summers, 20% fewer fire events, 10% less exposure to altered river channels and riparian areas, and 50% fewer recreational trails than the surrounding landscape. Our results suggest that super-refugia sites (∼8200 km²) for some natural communities are underrepresented in the existing protected area network, a finding that can inform efforts to expand protected areas. Our case study highlights how considering exposure to multiple stressors can inform planning and practice to conserve biodiversity in a changing world.     

Strategic Environmental Assessment： A New Tool for Ecological Urbanization of Coastal Cities in China

Recently, there has been growing concerns about environmental issues related to urbanization in China. The intense natural resources utilization and increasing population has brought great pressure, especially in coastal areas, consequently affecting the sustainable development of coastal cities. In 2002, Environmental Impact Assessment Act （EIA Act） was enacted in China. Environmental impact assessment targeted at planning, one level of strategic environmental assessment （SEA）, thus became a legislative requirement. This paper considers SEA to be one of the important approaches not only to control coastal pollution, but also to conserve coastal ecosystems and finally to achieve sustainable development during urbanization, thus it will be a set an example for other areas of China. The experience of SEA in Xiamen, a coastal city in southeast China, illustrates the potentials of SEA. This paper first briefly introduces the concept and potentials of SEA, then compares two SEA cases and a project EIA case in Xiamen, and finally identifies the key characteristics of SEA.     

资源型城市接续主导产业的选择研究--以白银市为例

本文论述了资源型城市接续主导产业选择的重要性和选择原则，并以白银市为例，利用综合评价值法广告牌了白银市的主导产业和优势产业，然后用特尔斐法对白银市的接续主导产业进行了选择，选择结果比较符合白银市的实际情况。     

浙江省农业自然资源合理利用战略研究

针对浙江省自然资源利用程度高,资源环境压力大,资源浪费和污染等严重问题,根据浙江省资源构成特点,从资源,环境与经济协调发展的观点提出减少非农建设占用耕地,完善基本农田保护工作,绝不以牺牲现有耕地为调整农业产业结构。与此同时,积极开发后备土地资源,补充现有耕地面积;对于水资源必须依法治,管并重,节约与开源相结合,合理利用水资源,着重开发山,海资源和改善农业生态环境等战略措施。     

基于边介数的省域生态廊道构建方法优化

我国城市建设和生态保护工作均对土地资源有大量需求,二者之间的矛盾在经济优先发展区表现尤为明显.为了有效地改善生态环境,管控土地利用并引导其变化发展,需要建设具备不可替代特征的省域生态廊道.最小累积阻力模型（minimum cumulative resistance,MCR）是识别生态廊道最常用、有效的模型,但在应用于省域尺度时,MCR模型识别的潜在廊道路由存在冗余的问题.因此,通过引入网络科学中的边介数指数（edge-betweenness）对MCR模型进行优化,计算潜在廊道路由的边介数指数值,选取出其中最为重要和简明的结构来连通生态源地,即提取潜在路由中的骨干路由（backbone route）和关键战略点（key strategic point）作为不可替代的结构来指导省域生态廊道建设.将优化后的MCR模型应用于广东省,构建了全长5 493 km的省域生态廊道,其中包含生态源地20处,关键战略点11个,骨干生态廊道29条.骨干路由与关键战略点构成的不可替代省域生态廊道（irreplaceable provincial corridor）能够实现"廊道数量和占地面积最少、连通性基本不变"的目标.研究显示,边介数能够对潜在路由进行优化筛选,识别出维护省域生态安全的关键结构;不可替代生态廊道能够指导省域生态规划和土地空间的发展利用,并为更高水平的生态安全环境提供了演进的基础;同时也为土地资源紧张的地区提供了建设生态廊道的参考与依据.      

公路隧道火灾发生位置与人群疏散通道仿真研究

利用EXODUS建立隧道的仿真场景,确定疏散人群仿真参数,并将出口工效OPS作为评价疏散效率的指标,分析不同火灾发生位置对疏散时间的影响。采用K-means算法分别对火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道位置进行聚类,并建立基于两者影响下的出口工效模型,通过对该模型求偏导,得出隧道火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道选择之间的关系。研究结果表明:火灾发生位置越接近人行横通道,疏散时间波动越大,人行横通道和隧道入口的疏散时间随人群疏散区域分界线变化,当火灾发生距人行横通道20~110 m时,变化明显,当距140~350 m时,变化平稳;出口工效OPS总体呈现不稳定的阶梯状变化趋势;火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道的最优位置呈线性递减关系。研究结果可应用于隧道应急指挥中心管理人员制定有效疏散路径和采取诱导分流人群措施。